Bulgaria's Energy and Water Regulatory Commission has set the natural gas price for May 2026 at €35.98 per megawatt hour, a 5% increase on April levels but still significantly below European market rates.

The price applies to supplies from state gas company Bulgargaz EAD to end suppliers, licensed heat energy producers, and transmission operators. It excludes access charges, transmission costs, excise duties, and VAT.

The regulator reported the 5% rise based on its own comparison. The source material does not provide the exact April 2026 price, so the increase cannot be independently verified against specific figures.

Why Bulgarian gas stays cheaper than Europe

The approved rate sits roughly €10 per MWh below the benchmark Dutch TTF exchange, where May 2026 quotations range from €46.30 to €46.85. That gap reflects Bulgaria's reliance on long-term supply contracts rather than spot market purchases.

According to the regulator, long-term deliveries from Azerbaijan via the Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector are expected to cover nearly all domestic consumption during the summer months. These imports reduce Bulgaria's exposure to the price swings seen on wider European exchanges.

The regulator noted that Azerbaijani volumes "play an important role in the formation of favourable prices for the domestic market." It expects Bulgarian consumers will avoid sharp increases during early summer, unlike trends observed across Europe. All forward-looking supply forecasts carry inherent market and geopolitical risk, and these expectations should be treated as estimates rather than guarantees.

The regulator's assessment that Bulgarian gas remains among the cheapest in Europe is based on its own analysis and has not been independently verified by third-party market analysts.

What's in the May price

The €35.98 rate includes three main components:

  • The full contracted volume of Azerbaijani natural gas delivered via the Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector under a long-term supply agreement
  • Liquefied natural gas secured by Bulgargaz through competitive auctions with international traders, prioritising minimum price offers and specific payment terms
  • Gas drawn from the Chiren underground storage facility, which balances seasonal demand and ensures system stability

Storage obligations at Chiren form part of Bulgaria's emergency preparedness framework for energy security. The regulator confirmed that compensation costs tied to storage operations are included in the final approved price.

Chiren functions as a strategic reserve, storing gas when demand is low and releasing it when consumption spikes, smoothing out the seasonal bumps that would otherwise force Bulgaria onto expensive spot markets.

What could change the picture

The outlook for July remains uncertain. The Azerbaijani supply contract is scheduled for a price adjustment that month. That revision will reflect changes in international oil prices, though the exact formula linking the two was not detailed in the regulator's announcement. Oil price movements could therefore influence gas costs from midsummer onwards.

Broader factors expected to affect pricing in coming months include geopolitical risks affecting supply routes, the pace of gas storage replenishment across Europe, and competition between European and Asian markets for liquefied natural gas cargoes.

What this means for British residents and businesses

For British expats heating homes in Bulgaria, the May price rise translates to a modest uptick in household energy bills, though Bulgarian gas remains cheaper than in much of Europe. If you're budgeting for winter 2026/27, the July contract revision is the date to watch, as it could shift the pricing landscape more sharply than the incremental May adjustment.

British companies operating manufacturing, hospitality, or property businesses in Bulgaria face direct impacts on operational costs, particularly heating bills and industrial energy budgets. The current pricing structure offers some insulation from spot market volatility, but the July inflection point merits attention in any financial planning beyond early summer.

For British investors watching European energy markets, Bulgaria's approach illustrates how smaller EU states without domestic production manage supply risk through long-term contracts and strategic storage. It's a model that prioritises predictability over flexibility, trading spot market opportunism for contractual certainty. Whether that proves wise depends largely on factors well beyond Sofia's control.

The Energy and Water Regulatory Commission will publish its full decision on the May 2026 gas price on its website, confirming the updated tariff structure for the month.